Wells Fargo Economics
Small Business Optimism Drops for Second Straight Month as Capex and Hiring Weaken
Sales and earnings gains offer a counterweight, but labor market softness and sticky inflation cloud the outlook for small firms nationwide Small business...
Existing Home Sales Post Modest February Rebound but Affordability Headwinds Persist
A pickup in single-family resales drove the monthly gain, though condo sales contracted for a second straight month and mortgage application data signals...
U.S. Consumer Spending Held Firm in January Despite Headline Retail Dip
Underlying U.S. consumer spending started 2026 on steadier ground than a top-line retail sales decline suggests, though early February data point to a...
U.S. Payrolls Contract by 92,000 in February as Labor Market Stumbles, Fed Outlook Dims
Wells Fargo Economics says one-off factors only partially explain the unexpected decline, with the Iran conflict adding new complexity to an already uncertain...
Wells Fargo Forecasts Modest Housing Recovery in 2026, but Affordability Remains at Historic Lows
A new Wells Fargo Economics report projects incremental gains in home sales and price appreciation, even as the national home price-to-income ratio remains...
U.S. Manufacturing Holds Expansion Streak as Prices Paid Surge on Steel, Aluminum, and Tariff Pressures
The ISM manufacturing index posted back-to-back expansionary readings for only the second time since 2022 U.S. manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for...
Wells Fargo Forecasts Sharp February Payroll Slowdown as January Jobs Surge Fades
The blockbuster January jobs number was likely a mirage, per the assessment of economists at Wells Fargo Economics, who are projecting nonfarm payroll...
Construction Spending Finds Footing at End of 2025, Headwinds Loom for 2026
Residential gains and data center investment helped stabilize total outlays in December, even as nonresidential categories weakened and building cost inflation accelerated to...
March Rate Cut Unlikely as Labor Market Stabilizes, Wells Fargo Sees 2 More Cuts in 2026
Solid consumer spending, 70K average monthly payroll growth and core PCE easing to 2.6 percent by Q4 shape updated U.S. outlook After a...
Beyond AI: U.S. Capital Investment Shows Early Signs of Broadening Recovery
New data on durable goods orders and industrial production point to stabilizing capex in traditional sectors, even as the AI investment boom continues...
CRE Capital Flows Rise in Q4 2025 as Commercial and Multifamily Originations Gain Momentum
Wells Fargo Economics says easing monetary policy is supporting broader lending activity across property types Capital is beginning to move more freely across...
Existing Home Sales Drop 8.4% to 3.91MM in January as Mortgage Rates Hover Near 6.1%
Wells Fargo Economics says weather disruptions and lingering affordability pressures restrained early-year activity Housing market momentum cooled to start the year, as a...
